Tinubu Reforms Catalyse Unprecedented Surge in Nigeria’s Upstream Energy Investment
Nigeria’s upstream oil and gas sector has witnessed a dramatic transformation, with its share of African investment soaring from a modest 4% pre-2023 to an impressive 40% in 2024 and 2025. This surge, underpinned by approximately $10 billion in committed capital and a further $50 billion pipeline of potential projects, signals a significant recalibration of the sector, driven by strategic reforms implemented by the current administration.
Olu Verheijen, Special Adviser to the President on Oil and Gas, highlighted this paradigm shift during the Nigerian-British Chamber of Commerce Energy Day 2026 in Lagos. Addressing a distinguished audience of industry leaders, investors, regulators, and development partners, Verheijen articulated a vision that moves beyond Nigeria’s inherent resource wealth. “Nigeria has never lacked potential,” she stated. “We have oil. We have gas. We have sunlight, water, land, talent and scale. What we have lacked is conversion — the discipline to turn resources into results.”
Verheijen detailed the challenging landscape inherited by the administration, characterising the sector as “crippled by unsustainable fuel subsidies, foreign exchange distortions, weak production and power sector debt.” The subsequent fiscal reforms have yielded substantial gains, with total federation revenue reportedly climbing to approximately N21 trillion in 2024, a significant increase from roughly N12 trillion in 2023.
A key area of progress has been domestic refining capacity. Local petrol production has escalated from near-zero levels in 2023 to an average of about 48 million litres per day. This development has demonstrably eased pressure on foreign exchange reserves, with petrol import costs plummeting from approximately N2.3 trillion in Q1 2025 to less than N90 billion in the corresponding quarter of the following year.
Crude output has also seen a notable improvement. Oil and condensate production averaged 1.64 million barrels per day in 2025, representing an increase of roughly 400,000 barrels per day compared to 2023 levels. Investment momentum is now evident in critical projects such as Bonga North and Ubeta, alongside several gas developments, which Verheijen confirmed are progressing after prolonged periods of delay.
Gas remains a cornerstone of Nigeria’s industrial strategy. Proven reserves now exceed 215 trillion cubic feet, with gross production rising from 6.83 billion standard cubic feet per day in 2023 to approximately 7.63 billion standard cubic feet per day. The administration is also actively addressing liquidity challenges within the power sector through the Presidential Power Sector Debt Reduction Programme. Furthermore, advancements in metering and tariff structures are enhancing efficiency, with the national metering rate reaching about 57% and hundreds of thousands of meters being deployed annually.
Verheijen emphasised that these energy reforms have far-reaching implications, impacting daily life beyond the immediate oil and gas industry. She extended a call to action for British and Nigerian investors to deepen their collaboration across financing, infrastructure development, technology transfer, and skills enhancement. The forward-looking agenda, she concluded, will focus on sustaining these reforms, expanding energy access, and ensuring reliable power supply to fuel industrial growth and national development.
